Pentagon Leak Points to U.S. Discomfort Over Strength of Israel's Potential Response to Iran - Israel News - Haaretz.com
Colonel Ehsan Daxa, commander of the regular army's 401st Armored Brigade, who was killed on Sunday in the northern Gaza Strip, was the fourth brigade commander the IDF has lost in this war.
Preceding him were the commanders of the Nahal infantry brigade, the multi-dimensional unit and the southern Gaza brigade, who were all killed on October 7, 2023, during the first hours after the Hamas terror attack on the Israeli communities near the Gaza border. The circumstances were different this time, and reflect the changes in the nature of the long war going on since then.
Those three brigade commanders were killed during the desperate defensive battles in the areas surrounding the Gaza Strip, against Hamas forces with superior numbers that broke into the communities.
The fighting now is being conducted deep in the Gaza Stirp, in the third operation by the IDF inside the Jabalya refugee camp in northern Gaza. The force commanded by Daxa arrived in two tanks at the outskirts of the refugee camp, and they got out for the commanders to observe the area. Daxa was killed and one of his battalion commanders was seriously wounded when they were hit by an explosive deviceplaced there.
Hamas still operates hundreds of armed men in the area of Jabalya. Many have been injured, but the continued fighting in the refugee camp shows how exaggerated the Israeli claims of having achieved victory against Hamas really are.
In the areas the IDF leaves, given the lack of any strategic alternative to Hamas in light of the Israeli government's stubbornness, the terrorist group has returned and is maintaining its hold on the ground.
IDF troops operating in Gaza, lsat week.Credit: IDF Spokesperson Unit
Pentagon leaks
The large leak of documents from the Pentagon, on the eve of the planned Israeli attack on Iran, teaches us quite a bit about the present state of relations between Washington and Jerusalem.
It is hard to believe the leak is the result of a decision by the Biden administration – in such a case, the material would probably have reached The New York Times and not the Telegram channel of pro-Iranian hackers, and wouldn't have included pictures of secret documents either.
But the very publication of the documents at this sensitive time testifies to the American discomfort with Israel's actions. Someone in the chain dealing with it – it could even be a junior intelligence officer who sympathizes with the Palestinians, for example – was angry enough to take the risk and distribute the secret information.
The Pentagon's announcement of a investigation of the leak may send the message that the Biden administration sees it as a serious incident, but at the same time it confirms that the information in the documents is authentic and reliable.
Our great friend has been spying on us for many decades – and you have to be very naïve to believe similar intelligence collection has never gone in the opposite direction. The documents exposed in the past few days demonstrate what interests the Americans, and how they obtain their information and reach their conclusions.
It is clear from the reports that the United States is closely and carefully monitoring the preparations of the Israel Air Force and intelligence community concerning the plan to attack Iran, which the Israeli leadership has been threatening to implement since the Iranian ballistic missile attack on October 1.
The details of the transfer of weapons and planes between air force bases are in the reports, along with exercises conducted recently by the air force in preparation for the attack.
One of the documents that appeared in the leak.
American intelligence analysts, no less than their Israeli counterparts, base themselves on exacting analyses of details from a wide variety of sites and a large range of intelligence sources to reach their conclusions. We can assume that to a more limited extent, Iran and Hezbollah are conducting a similar process of intelligence gathering and analysis.
CNN reported that the Pentagon is concerned about a further leak of secret information on the Israeli preparations soon. At the same time, President Joe Biden's statement that he knows how and when Israel will act can be heard in the background.
The Biden administration is trying the best it can to coordinate with Israel the actions it is planning and to contain the level of conflict – so it will not escalate into a continuous and direct conflict between Israel and Iran two weeks before the U.S. presidential election.
It is clear from the leaked documents that the American assessment is that the Israeli response will be significant, and this time will include a considerable number of sites; in April, according to reports in the media, Israel attacked only one target, the radar of an S-300 antiaircraft battery.
It is also likely the attack will include military targets. The international media have also discussed the possibility Israel will choose sites connected to the Iranian oil industry and nuclear program, too.
The explosion of the drone launched by Hezbollah at the private residence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Caesarea raises another possibility: Israel, which blames Iran more than Hezbollah for an attempt to kill Netanyahu – the Iranian delegation to the United Nations rushed to deny it – will try to attack the symbols of government in Tehran.
There is no reason to try to minimize the danger in this attack from Lebanon, even though Netanyahu was not in Caesarea when the drone hit. True, most of this information is available on the internet, but the drone's operators – according to the pictures published in media from the Persian Gulf – succeeded in blowing it up on a specific window inside a house, after a long flight that evaded Israeli air defenses. In the past, it was known that Netanyahu often spent the weekends in his house in Caesarea.
Still, Netanyahu remains Netanyahu: as usual, the real event turns into a celebration of victimhood, self-centeredness and being out of touch. The Likud spokespeople, at Netanyahu's instructions, issued a reprimand to the opposition leaders for not condemning the attack with what they saw as the proper urgency. He personally spoke incessantly about the threat to his and his wife's lives.
Police officers near the scene of the drone attack in Caesare, on Saturday.Credit: Rami Shllush
Meanwhile his servants, whose salaries are paid for by Israeli citizens, are busy helping themselves to compensation from the government, which has never bothered to show such interest and efficiency for the economic damage suffered by hundreds of thousands of Israelis since the war began.
Netanyahu demands endless empathy for himself, at a time when somehow his promised visit to Kibbutz Nir Oz, whose residents found themselves abandoned, held hostage and slaughtered – has not yet happened. It is no surprise that a day after the attempted attack on Netanyahu, the main response from many Israelis is deep revulsion.
Thunderous silence
The shocked statements of minsters and Knesset members from Likud stood out in light of their total silence in the face of what is now seen as a routine decree of fate – the deaths of three soldiers and a civilian on Saturday: two soldiers doing their compulsory service who were killed by an anti-tank missile that hit their tank in Gaza, a reservist who died of his wounds he suffered in combat in Lebanon, and a civilian who was killed by a rocket in the Western Galilee.
The massive fire of hundreds of rockets and a large number of drones continued on Sunday, which set off never-ending alarms in the northern third of the country.
Life in these areas is completely disrupted, and still no possibility of a cease-fire can be seen on the horizon. The pace of the rocket launches may not be the same as the early, terrifying forecasts of the IDF before the war, but it is increasing gradually. Life from the Afula-to-Atlit line northward is totally disrupted.
Cabinet ministers barely bother to talk about it: The damage to a large window in Caesarea is more important in their eyes. We almost never hear about ministers visiting the areas under bombardment on a daily basis. It's simply unbelievable.
Rockets target Israel's northern Galilee region, on Saturday.Credit: Gil Eliyahu
A visit to the headquarters of one of the divisions now fighting in southern Lebanon, not far from the border, shows a complicated picture. For now, no less than four divisions are operating in Lebanon, and under them are a large number of brigade combat teams, in both the regular army and reserves.
The numbers still may not resemble the maneuver in the Gaza Strip toward the end of last year, but they are expanding. Nonetheless, the IDF is not conquering southern Lebanon and is trying to simultaneously hold all the area up to the Litani River.
The operation is limited for the moment to a relatively narrow strip north of the border with Lebanon, and is focused on raids on specific towns. When the destruction of the Hezbollah bases in the towns, or in the wooded areas, comes to an end, the troops withdraw from there and move on to other towns.
The destruction, based on aerial photographs published on the internet, is enormous. As opposed to what might have been expected, it is hard to find any clear tension between the IDF General Staff and the Northern Command over the continuation of the war. In both places, they are talking about an operation limited in time, which will continue for a few more weeks at most.
Soldiers at an IDF outpost near Israel's northern border with Lebanon, last week.Credit: Gil Eliyahu
After that, the army wants to achieve a cease-fire and diplomatic arrangement with international involvement, which will greatly reduce the threat from Hezbollah on the communities in northern Israel, after all they have suffered.
The problem is that achieving this goal depends on many other parties. First, it is not at all certain that Hezbollah will agree to such an arrangement, especially in light of the damage it has suffered.
Second, the position of the Israeli government is still not clear, certainly not in light of the pressure from the residents of the communities along the northern border to continue and take control of further territory – and possibly even reestablish the security zone over the border, which in their view will protect them from the threat from Lebanon.